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Title : The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election
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The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election

Nate Silver and Harry Enten, FiveThiryEight: The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election

On the morning of the U.S. presidential election, we pointed out that there were three scenarios for what might transpire that night, each of which were about equally likely. In Scenario No. 1, the polls would be spot-on; Hillary Clinton would win narrowly, with a 3-to-4 percentage point popular victory and somewhere on the order of 300 electoral votes. In Scenario No. 2, Clinton would outperform her polls, leading to a near-landslide victory and possible wins in states such as Arizona and Georgia which had traditionally favored Republicans. And in Scenario No. 3, Donald Trump would beat his polls; because the Electoral College favored Trump, even a small polling error in his favor would probably be enough to make him president. Scenario No. 3 is the one that transpired, but it wasn’t any more or less likely than the other two.

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WNU Editor: I am not in England .... so I have no direct "feed" on what is the sentiment in England right now on how the vote will turn out. What I do know is that this election should have been a "slum-dunk" for May .... and it appears to not be the case. Anyway .... we shall a good idea on what will be the results in the next 12 hours.

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